Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee had said additional money from 3G spectrum auction will provide him a little elbow room to manage the government finances.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
Snapping the two months slide, the country's merchandise exports rose marginally by 0.5 per cent to $34.58 billion in September while trade deficit narrowed to $20.78 billion. According to official data released on Wednesday, imports increased by 1.6 per cent to $55.36 billion in September compared to $54.49 billion in the year-ago period. The trade deficit, or the gap between imports and exports, was $20.8 billion during the same month last year.
Defence expenditure was pegged at 1.4 per cent of GDP in the Budget for 2025-26 but it may widen, depending on tensions between India and Pakistan.
'The move towards fiscal consolidation had to be diluted because of the relief to farmers as the government wants to appease the voters.'
India's merchandise exports in November dipped by 4.85 per cent to $32.11 billion against $33.75 billion a year ago, according to government data released on Monday. Imports increased by 27 per cent to $69.95 billion in November compared to $55.06 billion in the year-ago month.
The upcoming Union Budget to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 10 and 10.5 per cent for FY26, a Business Standard poll of 10 economists showed. The first advance estimates released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) had estimated a nominal GDP growth of 9.7 per cent for FY25. Nominal GDP, calculated at current market prices, factors in the effect of inflation. It is used as the base to calculate crucial macroeconomic indicators, such as fiscal deficit, revenue deficit, and debt-to-GDP ratio.
The government may be staring at a modest slippage in fiscal deficit for 2022-23 (FY23), with the Ministry of Finance seeking parliamentary approval for additional spending through a second and final tranche of supplementary demands for grants. On Monday, as the Budget session of Parliament resumed, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman sought Parliament approval for additional gross spending of Rs 2.7 trillion in FY23 (which ends on March 31). While net cash outgo is pegged at Rs 1.48 trillion, the rest will be matched by savings or enhanced receipts, the finance ministry said.
Experts say the state's economy is grappling with hidden debt, rising welfare costs, and lack of transparency.
While presenting her 2021-22 Union Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had set a fiscal deficit target of 6.8 per cent of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) against the 2020-21 Revised Estimate of 9.5 per cent. The fiscal correction in the upcoming 2022-23 Union Budget is unlikely to be that steep. Even as discussions among top Budget-makers are ongoing, the fiscal deficit target for 2022-23 may likely be in the range of 6.5-6.8 per cent.
All eyes will be on whether Sitharaman will deliver a populist budget leaving more money in hands of the common man or push the reform agenda by staying on the fiscal glide path to lower the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26.
The finance minister added that Indian government revenues are expected to increase by 21 per cent in the 2013-14 fiscal year.
A closer look at deficit and accumulated debt suggests that, contrary to claims, the fiscal deficit is not under control.
The Lok Sabha on Tuesday passed the Finance Bill 2025, along with 35 government amendments, including one that abolishes a 6 per cent digital tax on online advertisements.
Fitch Ratings on Monday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-', with a stable outlook, saying a strong record of delivering growth and improving fiscal credibility will drive improvements in structural metrics. "India's ratings are supported by its robust growth and solid external finances," Fitch said, as it forecast GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2026 (FY26), unchanged from FY25, and well above the 'BBB' median of 2.5 per cent.
'In times of adversity, families unite, but the reverse is happening in the Lalu family.'
'Spend, but create assets, spend but make sure that people benefit from it.' 'This has been a beautiful guiding principle. And I think as a finance minister I owe so much to the prime minister for keeping this path clear before us.'
S&P Global Ratings on Friday said it will watch the fiscal numbers for the next 1-2 years, besides pro-growth policies of the new government, before deciding on India's sovereign rating upgrade. S&P, which earlier this week upgraded India's outlook to positive while retaining the sovereign rating at BBB-, expects the new government to continue with pro-growth policies, infrastructure investment and commitment to fiscal consolidation.
Few finance ministers announce any taxation measure that could upset the stock market. Ms Sitharaman decided to take that risk, observes A K Bhattacharya.
K R Girish, partner, KPMG India Tax and Regulatory Services, speaking on the Indian Union Budget 2009 at Asia Society in New York.
While the capital spending is being maintained at 3.1 per cent of the GDP, a little more would have boosted economic growth even further, suggests Rajiv Memani.
The government should not go in for an 'aggressive fiscal consolidation' in the upcoming Budget as global risks have not abated, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Wednesday. Goyal further said subsidies are expected to come down as food and energy inflation moderates. WPI inflation in food articles in November was 1.07 per cent against 8.33 per cent in the previous month.
Budget 2025-26 delivers a carefully calibrated strategy-stimulating demand and investment while keeping fiscal discipline intact. In an environment marked by global trade disruptions, and a softening in urban consumption, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has taken a measured approach.
The comments come a day after Fitch Ratings had warned the setback for the Congress party in recent state elections could imperil the fiscal deficit target by tempting the government to have less restraint on spending.
Credibility of fiscal promises is a virtue that no finance minister can afford to lose.
In the Budget speech, Arun Jaitley had first spoken about the need to have a range.
Schemes like the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana strain fiscal resources amid rising unemployment and prices of food items.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato surged over 7 per cent. Maruti, ITC Hotels, ITC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Titan and IndusInd Bank were among the biggest gainers. Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
Finance Minister Jaswant Singh chose a newly refurbished hall in North Block to defend his announcements in a post-interim Budget interview.
'The finance minister missed yet another opportunity to simplify the income tax structure in the Budget.' 'This was an opportune moment to get rid of the old tax system entirely and move fully to the new system,' asserts M Govinda Rao, member of the 14th Finance Commission.
The state's economic health is in focus as it has consistently breached the fiscal deficit in eight of the last 10 years since Telangana's formation.
India's economy is likely to grow by 6.5 per cent in the current and the next financial year, an EY report said, attributing lower than anticipated expansion in the September quarter to fall in private consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation. Real GDP growth eased to a seven-quarter low of 5.4 per cent in July-September -- the second quarter of the current 2024-25 fiscal year.
The impact of economic slump was visible in the Budget's fine print, as this step-by-step explanation show how the Budget math was worked out, reports Abhishek Waghmare.
However, economists call the deficit target not feasible, given the current global crude oil prices.
The minister also underlined the need to control gold import, which has contributed $64 billion to the widening CAD.
The panel may include or seek inputs from former RBI Governor Urjit Patel, former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian, Sajjid Chinoy of the PM-EAC, Rathin Roy, among others.
Economists want Budget to focus on infrastructure, have a clear strategy on disinvestment and state measures to boost investment climate.
Economists have cautioned that any deferment of the government's fiscal goals would prove counter-productive and raise the interest payment burden.
